Bitcoin Roadmap: Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price for 2023, 2024, and Beyond

What follows is a technical analysis outlook for Bitcoin, including trend analysis, price projections, and tools you can use to aid in your own Bitcoin analysis and thus make better trading and investing decisions.

Unless otherwise noted, all Bitcoin prices are in U.S. dollars (BTC/USD).

Bitcoin Price Action Analysis

When there are large percentage changes over time, like in the case of Bitcoin, using a logarithmic chart (instead of arithmetic) shows the overall trend much more clearly. Logarithmic charts scale the chart so percentage movements are the same. A move from $1 to $2 takes up the same price area on the chart as a move from $15,000 to $30,000.

The following log chart shows that Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend, making higher major swing highs and higher major swing lows. The highs have been marked with green lines and the lows with red lines. Both sets of colored lines are still stepping upwards.

Through the first half of 2023 the price rallied. While it is impossible to know if $15,479 (October 2022 low) is the low point for this pullback (price could drop and go lower), so far the price has seen a significant bounce and thus it would appear the uptrend is resuming.

The downtrend also looks to have completed based on the cycles analysis (discussed below).

We can look to history to see how the price has performed after putting a major low point. The 2015 to 2017 rally saw the price rally more than 12,000%. That was still in the early days of Bitcoin. More recently, from 2019 to 2021, Bitcoin rallied just over 2000% off the 2018 major low point. It surged more than 1700% in 2013 off a low point.

Going forward, a conservative price forecast estimate (based on prior sized moves) of a 600% rally puts a target near $110,000. Prior rallies have unfolded over two to three years, sometimes less. The rally off the most recent 2022 low point is less than a year old.

If the price were to rally 1000%, that would put the target near $175,000. These are smaller percentage targets than prior rallies. A 1500% surge, which is more in line with the prior rallies of history, puts a target near $250,000.

Another way to analyze the price is to measure how far the cryptocurrency price moved above a prior high, once it makes a higher high. This would require the price to move back above $69,000. Prior rallies have moved 230% to 1500% above prior highs before retreating once again.

A 100% rally above the prior high would be a conservative estimate, putting a target near $138,000.

Once the price makes a new high, it typically runs for several months before reaching a new high and then declining again.

There are no guarantees in trading. What happened in the past may not happen in the future. But if history is any indication, there is still upside potential in this rally assuming the price stays above the October 2022 low.

Bitcoin RSI Indicator Analysis

While the RSI indicator is often thought of as an overbought and oversold indicator, it is also an effective trend analysis tool.

Trends tend to stay within certain areas of the RSI. Uprends in Bitcoin tend to stay between RSI readings of 40 (often 50) and 80+. Downtrends in Bitcoin tend to have RSI readings below 50, and spikes tend to stay below 60.

These levels are based on the weekly chart. Dropping down to a daily chart, you will find similar levels and can fine-tune them even further.

The following chart shows how this plays out. There was a period around 2020 when the RSI whipsawed around the 50 level, and couldn’t get firmly entrenched on either side. This was a sideways to slightly bearish period for Bitcoin. Even then readings didn’t get above 60 for long.

Other than that, the levels tend to work quite well.

As for early 2023, the RSI had a strong surge up into “bull market” readings and has remained in the upper half of the indicator signaling that this is an uptrending period.

Another way to think of it is that bear markets rarely see rallies on the RSI up into the 60+ region, especially 65+. So if Bitcoin has been dropping (and RSI levels have been low), and the RSI spikes to 65+ it is likely that an upturned is starting. You then want to see pullbacks stay above 40 on the RSI to consider it an uptrend.

Bull markets rarely see the RSI drop below 40 unless a reversal is occurring. So if you see RSI drop below 40 after a sustained up move (and elevated RSI levels) then its a warning that a downtrend may already be underway.

Even drops below 50 will have me questioning the uptrend. If there is a drop below 40, or close to it, and then you start seeing RSI readings that stall out near 60 or below, you’re likely in a downtrend.

Note that I don’t use RSI for any entry signals. I use price action analysis first. RSI can provide some confirmation if needed. Therefore, the color coding on the chart above is when there is an RSI spike (up or down) that could cause a trend shift.

You will notice the indicator is slightly delayed in picking up reversals compared to the price action, as indicators often are because they take time to react.

Bitcoin Time Cycles Analysis

The following chart shows all the major up and down moves in the price of Bitcoin since 2011. It shows the percentage movements as well as the time it took for those moves to complete.

The price chart is filtered to only show price moves of more than 70%, which makes one thing quite clear. Big rallies, accompanied by drops of 70% or more, are quite common. Once a high is established, expect a 70%+ pullback.

As the price of Bitcoin stabilizes in the future this pattern will likely cease as the drops become less sizable or at least less frequent. But for now, this is the repeating pattern.

The drop from the 2021 all-time high exceeded 70%, in line with prior major declines. While some downtrends did drop further, that 70% to 75% decline region has been a great buying point historically.

The 2022 decline was also the longest price decline in Bitcoin’s history, lasting 371 days. This indicates the price was well overdue for a rally. Prior major declines lasted 350 days or less.

The rally so far, off of the 2022 low point, has lasted 259 days. Most rallies have lasted must longer than that, except one: 2019. In that case, the price had a nice rally of 344% off the low, but then had another major decline of 72% before rallying again.

That scenario is possible with the current rally in 2023. That said, the 2023 rally has already been underway longer than the brief (but strong) rally of 2019. Without a major correction, this rally is likely to last 500 days or more, indicating the rally is only half complete in terms of time.

Bitcoin Price Analysis Summary

Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend making overall higher highs and higher lows.

The 2022 decline in Bitcoin’s price was typical in terms of depth (compared to prior major declines), indicating that the 2022 low point is likely a bottom and Bitcoin will rally again over the next year or more. The price has already been rallying for about ⅔ of a year.

RSI indicates Bitcoin is currently in an uptrend as well.

Price action analysis and time cycle analysis indicate this rally could have room to run. The current uptrend could unfold over a year or more, reaching conservative targets between $110,000 and $138,000. “Conservative” means smaller percentages were used for the price projection than what prior rallies achieved.

There are no certainties in trading. Projections are based on the current trend and could change if the price of Bitcoin drops and starts making lower lows and lower highs. Then projections would need to be made based from that low point.

Bitcoin Analysis FAQs

Is Bitcoin a scam?

Bitcoin is known as the first modern blockchain and cryptocurrency as an asset class and is considered the most secure network and was created by Satoshi Nakamoto as a solution to traditional banking and financial infrastructure. It is highly improbable that Bitcoin is a scam.

Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 again?

Bitcoin has reached this milestone before, and will likely reach it again. Bitcoin has a limited supply so it is expected that the coins will retain value since there are no more available once all 21 million are released. Limited supply creates demand, and the technical analysis outlook indicates Bitcoin could exceed $100,000.

Is it too late to buy Bitcoin?

It is not too late to buy Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is unlikely to move thousands of percent in a year, as it could in its infancy, that doesn’t mean there aren’t good profits to be had by investing. In early 2023 Bitcoin ran from $17,000 to $30,000, a more than 75% surge in a matter of months. Since the price is always moving, opportunities will continue to present themselves.

Will Bitcoin ever get hacked?

Bitcoin is the most secure blockchain and is backed by many powerful financial organizations and hedge funds worldwide. Hacking Bitcoin’s network seems impossible with current computers. Quantum computers of the future could possibly hack the Bitcoin network, but it will likely take decades to build a functional quantum computer that can accomplish this. Besides, Bitcoin’s network can be forked and become resistant to quantum hacks.

What is Bitcoin’s All-Time High?

Bitcoin reached a high of $69,000 in November of 2021. The exact high will vary slightly based on the exchange or data you are using. If you trade on Coinbase, you are trading with a group of people on that exchange, so the high may be slightly different than the high seen on Binance, because different traders and transactions are going through on each crypto exchange. That said, the high on most exchanges is very close to USD$69,000.

What kind of asset is Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is part of the crypto market, and is called a cryptocurrency. These types of currencies are also referred to as digital assets or digital currencies because they are not tangible like a dollar bill, and are stored electronically.